Mô tả

The coking coal market has generally stabilized, with some mines resuming production after inspections, easing concerns about supply. However, short-term production remains scarce, with average daily output still significantly lower than before the accident. Market rumors suggest a fifth coking coal price surge is imminent, potentially surpassing previous surges, with high-quality coking coal produced on demand likely to continue rising in price. If coking coal prices continue to rise, it will significantly reduce the profitability of steel mills.

Regarding industrial enterprise profits in April, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises nationwide increased by 24.7% year-on-year, a significant acceleration from the 15.8% increase in March, reaching a record high since November 2023. Cumulative profit growth in the first four months of the year reached 18.2%, higher than the 15.5% increase in the first quarter, indicating continued improvement in industrial profitability. However, the overall profitability of the steel industry remains weak, still in a slow recovery phase.

From January to April, the metallurgical and steel rolling industry achieved operating revenue of 2,387.5 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year; and total profit of 7.58 billion yuan, down 51.5% year-on-year. This strong industrial profit growth was mainly driven by overseas demand. The global investment boom in artificial intelligence, coupled with tensions in the Middle East pushing up raw material prices, has led foreign buyers to worry that conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran could increase investment costs, prompting them to purchase earlier than expected. Driven by these factors, exports from several domestic industries accelerated last month. Behind the impressive profit figures lies the uneven recovery of the domestic economy and weak endogenous momentum, with economic growth partly dependent on external demand.

Considering the current market situation, the steel market remains weak. On the one hand, futures prices are inevitably trending downwards and showing weak recovery; on the other hand, the spot market is nearing the end of the month, with generally weak delivery capabilities, leading to reduced trading volume. In the near future, as the impact of the Shanxi coal mine accident subsides, the market will essentially return to normal.

With rumors of a fifth coking coal price hike imminent, rising raw material costs will continue to reduce steel mill profits, thereby limiting output. Supply pressure in June will remain relatively low; the main focus will be on changes in demand. Meanwhile, the 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran has accelerated the decline in crude oil prices, but this has benefited the stock market, steel exports, and the recovery of demand in the Middle East. Therefore, the potential for further declines in steel prices is relatively limited, and a recovery in June is even possible.

Currently, the entire ferrous metals sector closed lower. After the sharp drop, a recovery on the daily chart is unlikely, and the market is expected to continue to decline. The range for next week's rebar futures contract is expected to be around 3,120-3,150 RMB/tonne.

Source: Satthep.net